Over five decades since its deployment, the Soviet spacecraft named Kosmos 482 is set to plummet back to Earth. Initially designed to touch down on Venus, it began disintegrating in low Earth orbit and failed to reach its intended destination. Following years of circulating around our planet in an elliptical path, it is now poised to make a dramatic return to terra firma.
In 1972, Kosmos 482 embarked on its journey, yet due to Cold War-era confidentiality, details regarding its precise objective remain scarce. Our understanding stems from concurrent Soviet endeavors aimed at exploring Venus, as well as indications suggesting this probe intended to follow a path toward Earth’s celestial neighbor until it disintegrated. The specific reason behind the craft’s malfunction remains uncertain; however, out of the four debris components produced upon breakup, three landed in New Zealand soon post-launch.
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The final segment moved into a more elevated orbit, where its nearest approach to Earth was approximately 210 kilometers above ground level and its farthest point was roughly 9,800 kilometers away. Throughout the decades, gases from the uppermost layer of Earth’s atmosphere have gradually decelerated this object, reducing the size of its orbital path around our planet until it has reached a proximity that will cause it to descend. Its descent is anticipated between May 9th and 10th.
The leftover portion of the spacecraft, specifically its landing capsule, is believed to have a diameter exceeding one meter and weighs close to 500 kilograms. Given its substantial size and the probability that it was constructed to endure entry into Venus’ scorching and thick atmosphere, it appears quite probable that it will withstand its fall undamaged and impact the surface forcefully, traveling faster than 200 kilometers per hour.
Predicting precisely where the final segment of Kosmos 482 might crash is unfeasible. Given its present orbital path, it has the potential to land anywhere on our planet within the latitude range spanning from 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south—this encompasses regions ranging from the lower part of South America all the way up through portions of Canada and into Russia. Fortunately, even though this extensive zone offers numerous possibilities for impact locations, the likelihood of hitting a populated region remains minimal. As stated by Marcin Pilinski from the University of Colorado Boulder, “The chances are astronomically minute.”
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It is highly probable that it will end up in the ocean.
Pilinski is part of a group monitoring the debris. As it gets nearer, the potential landing locations and times become more precise. Objects from space returning to Earth happen frequently; approximately one tracked item by NASA descends daily, with many burning up in the atmosphere or splashing into the sea. Kosmos 482 is simply an unusually large and resilient piece of orbital waste.
